Topic: The state of Our Industry amidst the World
Financial Crisis
ABSTRACT
We've all seen the headlines. Now, in the
spirit of the holidays, we take a moment to reflect on the year now
ending and think about the future of our industry and the world. A
panel discussion will be short on presentation, long on discussion.
Anyone wishing to volunteer to be a panel member should email me at
michael.wilcox@alfordinc.com Among
the topics to be discussed are the following items, as suggested by
Richard Holmes and others. We hope to see you there; it should be a
very lively discussion! And a chance to network with friends and get
the latest Boston gossip!
The following threads could be
developed:
1)
history of the mortgage crisis (FNM, FRE, CRA, FIRREA
(1989), etc., and this only gets us to the
1990s);
2) housing
price bubble (and possible complicity by the Fed) and its
collapse;
3)
origin of CDS in the mid-90s, role of quants, role of JPM,
expansion;
4)
securitization and leverage, lack of regulation, failure of ratings
agencies;
5)
connection between CDS and MBS;
6) role of hedge funds, levering and eventual
margin calls;
7)
financial engineering and social engineering (see
1);
8) Paulsen's
zigs and zags;
9)
role of post-Enron accounting rules;
10) general greed and lack of oversight at
multiple levels.
What's still to
come?
1)
further meltdown (commercial RE, auto loan & credit card
defaults, job losses,...);
2) further stimulus (potentially
huge);
3) another bubble (in
Treasuries).
Recommendations:
1) Government
policy (extent of "bailouts" and stimulus, further regulation
especially of CDS, adjustment of accounting
rules,...);
2)
Investment policy (although very early in the game, market seems to
approve of Obamanomics so
far...).
Further background (and fuel for the
fire!):
Madoff Case to Rock Already
Shaky Hedge Funds 12/13/2008 1:37:25 PM ET BOSTON (Reuters)—Bernard
Madoff has single-handedly turned an already very bad year for hedge
funds into a catastrophe. Now the industry's already steep losses
may grow even larger, dozens of funds might collapse and confidence
eroded even more after a 70-year-old New York-based investor
allegedly cheated investors from Palm Beach,
Fla.
Hedge Funds Brace for More Rules in Wake of Madoff
Scandal 12/13/2008 1:29:37 PM ET WASHINGTON
(Reuters)—Investor Bernard Madoff's alleged fraud was so enormous
that it left hedge fund industry executives groping for words to
describe it. The only thing they are certain of is that his alleged
Ponzi scheme—estimated at $50 billion—will prompt fresh calls for
regulators to beef up enforcement and possibly adopt new rules for
loosely supervised hedge funds.
Guest
fee for attendance is $30. Members attend at no charge. If you are
not yet a member or have not paid your dues lately, you may pay your
annual dues of $150 (your membership year starts on the day you
pay).
You
may bring cash or a check for either amount ($150 or $30) made out
to "QWAFAFEW" and give it to our Treasurer, Hugh Crowther
Please let us know if you intend to come to the meeting.
Walk-ins are always welcome;
still, we greatly appreciate all RSVPs so that we can have
adequate food and drink on
hand.
Help needed.
We are always in need of people to arrive
early for the meetings to help set up the seating and
refreshments. If you are willing to help out please contact
Hugh
Crowther.
2009
Boston QWAFAFEW Schedule
(names are Steerage
Committee members in charge of the program)
2009
January 20 Dan
Rie
February 17
Mark Kritzman
March
17
John Minahan
April
21
Dan diBartolomeo
May
19
John Nagorniak
June
16
Evan
Schulman
July 21
Jarrod Wilcox
One member of the
Steerage Committee is responsible for coordinating each
meeting.
Program
suggestions from members are always welcome.
Hugh Crowther (Treasurer) and Donna
Murphy also serve in
an advisory capacity on our Steerage
Committee.
Chicago
